Qualification · Qualification 30
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
155.42 – 35.84
82%18%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
184 – 217
Prediction missed · off by 104.9 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 245.3 ±13.9
Season APEX 46.1Event APEX 10.35Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 110.9Event APEX 108.02Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 88.3Event APEX 37.05Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 321.4 ±15.6
Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 8.63Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95
2151PMSA Monty Pythons
Provisional
Season APEX 32.6Event APEX -13.01Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73
Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 40.22Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 9280, 8096, 1781
61
/ 100 compatProjected
155.4 pts
~2.3 RP (regional)
Teams: 9280, 8096, 1781
Auto
21.4 14%
Teleop
91.0 59%
Endgame
40.6 27%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 60%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 5822, 2151, 3061
16
/ 100 compatProjected
35.8 pts
~0.9 RP (regional)
Teams: 5822, 2151, 3061
Auto
12.3 44%
Teleop
3.4 12%
Endgame
12.4 44%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 60%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.27 · Blue 0.95
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score155.4pts
Blue projected score35.8pts
Red win probability82%
Event bonus sample148alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 60%, blue 54%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 119.6
- Score range
- 6–185
- Upset likelihood
- 18%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
245.3Season APEX321.4
21.4Auto12.3
91Teleop3.4
40.6Endgame12.4
82Consistency39
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 31 | 42 |
| teleop | 118 | 116 |
| endgame | 20 | 24 |
| foul | 15 | 35 |
| total | 184 | 217 |
Result
Final score
184 – 217
Prediction missed · off by 104.9 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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