Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

229.62 – 289.17

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

227 – 290

Prediction correct · off by 1.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 276.4 ±15.1

4645The Chicago Style BotDogs

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 33.28Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

5934Crowbotics

Season APEX 112Event APEX 123.23Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 82

2290FLYT

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 73.11Rank 10Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 406.6 ±15.1

112Plus One

Season APEX 90.2Event APEX 67.01Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4296Trident Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 75.4Event APEX 46.64Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

111WildStang

Season APEX 241Event APEX 175.52Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4645, 5934, 2290

/ 100 compat

Projected

229.6 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4645, 5934, 2290

Auto

51.3 23%

Teleop

106.3 48%

Endgame

63.4 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 112, 4296, 111

/ 100 compat

Projected

289.2 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 112, 4296, 111

Auto

49.0 17%

Teleop

163.8 58%

Endgame

71.4 25%

Strengths

· 111 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.33 · Blue 2.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score229.6pts

Blue projected score289.2pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -59.6
Score range: 197–322
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 517 vs event baseline 181.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

276.4Season APEX406.6

51.3Auto49

106.3Teleop163.8

63.4Endgame71.4

57Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	52
teleop	91	174
endgame	90	64
foul	5	0
total	227	290

Result

Final score

227 – 290

Prediction correct · off by 1.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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