Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

219.46 – 139.18

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

191 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 18.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 308.2 ±11.6

8020CyberpunK

Season APEX 157.5Event APEX 99.55Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8880Terra Cyborg

Season APEX 97.1Event APEX 84.94Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7417Bionic Bombers

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 34.97Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 267.1 ±17.5

3734StarBots

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 37.86Rank 23Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

4702Cyberdogz

Provisional

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX -5.61Rank 33Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10435IRS - Intelligent Robotic Systems

Season APEX 139.3Event APEX 106.93Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8020, 8880, 7417

/ 100 compat

Projected

219.5 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 8020, 8880, 7417

Auto

20.6 10%

Teleop

133.3 64%

Endgame

54.1 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3734, 4702, 10435

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.2 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3734, 4702, 10435

Auto

7.2 5%

Teleop

89.6 64%

Endgame

42.3 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.09 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score219.5pts

Blue projected score139.2pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 80.3
Score range: 109–249
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 338 vs event baseline 165.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

308.2Season APEX267.1

20.6Auto7.2

133.3Teleop89.6

54.1Endgame42.3

57Consistency130

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	38
teleop	111	77
endgame	48	27
foul	5	5
total	191	147

Result

Final score

191 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 18.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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