Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

278.45 – 238.43

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

251 – 249

Prediction correct · off by 19 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 370.9 ±12.8

3472PrepaTec - Buluk

Season APEX 63.4Event APEX 75.49Rank 22Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4645The Chicago Style BotDogs

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 46.87Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

111WildStang

Season APEX 241Event APEX 156.09Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 371.5 ±15.6

3067Robovikes

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 24.12Rank 29Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5847Ironclad

Season APEX 248.6Event APEX 196.09Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9669Regina Riveters

Provisional

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 18.22Rank 31Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3472, 4645, 111

/ 100 compat

Projected

278.5 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3472, 4645, 111

Auto

48.5 18%

Teleop

147.3 54%

Endgame

75.3 28%

Strengths

· 111 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3067, 5847, 9669

/ 100 compat

Projected

238.4 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3067, 5847, 9669

Auto

52.8 22%

Teleop

115.2 49%

Endgame

68.9 29%

Strengths

· 5847 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.91 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score278.5pts

Blue projected score238.4pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 40
Score range: 209–307
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 500 vs event baseline 161.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

370.9Season APEX371.5

48.5Auto52.8

147.3Teleop115.2

75.3Endgame68.9

114Consistency135

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	83	53
teleop	121	140
endgame	47	26
foul	0	30
total	251	249

Result

Final score

251 – 249

Prediction correct · off by 19 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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