Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

182.09 – 161.12

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

194 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 56.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 554.4 ±11.7

3061Huskie Robotics

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 39.35Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2338Gear It Forward

Season APEX 251.3Event APEX 99.35Rank 4Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2290FLYT

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 43.39Rank 10Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 310.4 ±14.5

11173STAR FORCE

Season APEX 126.3Event APEX 14.75Rank 35Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 91

4787Axiom

Season APEX 90Event APEX 111.12Rank 27Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2022Titan Robotics

Season APEX 94.1Event APEX 35.25Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3061, 2338, 2290

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.1 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3061, 2338, 2290

Auto

25.1 14%

Teleop

114.1 62%

Endgame

45.8 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11173, 4787, 2022

/ 100 compat

Projected

161.1 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 11173, 4787, 2022

Auto

14.1 9%

Teleop

110.3 70%

Endgame

33.5 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.82 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score182.1pts

Blue projected score161.1pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 21
Score range: 132–211
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 254 vs event baseline 161.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

554.4Season APEX310.4

25.1Auto14.1

114.1Teleop110.3

45.8Endgame33.5

23Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	21
teleop	95	30
endgame	25	9
foul	10	0
total	194	60

Result

Final score

194 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 56.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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