Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

20.73 – 77.66

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

99 – 91

Prediction missed · off by 45.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 220.7 ±13.3

2358Bearbotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 14.83Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8029Steel Bronco Robotics

Season APEX 75.6Event APEX -1.74Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9280PrepaTec - High Altitude Robotics

Season APEX 46.1Event APEX 7.64Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 188.1 ±15.6

8122Mechanical Mustaches

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 32.89Rank 34Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4296Trident Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 75.4Event APEX 31.29Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

6651Golden Bots

Season APEX 51.1Event APEX 13.48Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2358, 8029, 9280

/ 100 compat

Projected

20.7 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 2358, 8029, 9280

Auto

26.5 100%

Teleop

4.2 27%

Endgame

-15.0 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8122, 4296, 6651

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.7 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 8122, 4296, 6651

Auto

22.1 26%

Teleop

37.4 45%

Endgame

24.5 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.21 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score20.7pts

Blue projected score77.7pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -56.9
Score range: -9–108
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 190 vs event baseline 164.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

220.7Season APEX188.1

26.5Auto22.1

4.2Teleop37.4

-15Endgame24.5

43Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	22
teleop	52	46
endgame	19	18
foul	5	5
total	99	91

Result

Final score

99 – 91

Prediction missed · off by 45.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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