Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

111.24 – 287.22

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

169 – 315

Prediction correct · off by 42.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 346.6 ±16.4

48Team E.L.I.T.E.

Season APEX 220.6Event APEX 68.2Rank 13Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9669Regina Riveters

Provisional

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 11.79Rank 31Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3734StarBots

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 31.25Rank 23Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 583.5 ±11.7

5822WolfByte

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 17.81Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

5847Ironclad

Season APEX 248.6Event APEX 181.36Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2338Gear It Forward

Season APEX 251.3Event APEX 88.05Rank 4Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 48, 9669, 3734

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.2 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 48, 9669, 3734

Auto

15.9 13%

Teleop

68.1 58%

Endgame

33.8 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5822, 5847, 2338

/ 100 compat

Projected

287.2 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 5822, 5847, 2338

Auto

43.0 15%

Teleop

164.1 57%

Endgame

80.4 28%

Strengths

· 5847 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.83 · Blue 2.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score111.2pts

Blue projected score287.2pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -176
Score range: 83–315
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 484 vs event baseline 156.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

346.6Season APEX583.5

15.9Auto43

68.1Teleop164.1

33.8Endgame80.4

115Consistency108

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	78
teleop	75	183
endgame	62	54
foul	5	0
total	169	315

Result

Final score

169 – 315

Prediction correct · off by 42.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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