Qualification · Qualification 21
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
98.89 – 0
80%20%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
157 – 114
Prediction correct · off by 86.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 233.3 ±15.1
Season APEX 51.1Event APEX 9.42Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 157.5Event APEX 97.17Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
1739Chicago Knights Robotics
Provisional
Season APEX 24.7Event APEX -7.7Rank 32Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 271.8 ±12.7
Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 10.34Rank 34Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 46.1Event APEX -13.07Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 164.1Event APEX -11.06Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 6651, 8020, 1739
46
/ 100 compatProjected
98.9 pts
~2.2 RP (regional)
Teams: 6651, 8020, 1739
Auto
26.5 28%
Teleop
52.1 55%
Endgame
16.6 17%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 51%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 8122, 9280, 2704
6
/ 100 compatProjected
-13.8 pts
~0.9 RP (regional)
Teams: 8122, 9280, 2704
Auto
14.4 0%
Teleop
-19.8 100%
Endgame
-8.6 61%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 51%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.16 · Blue 0.91
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score98.9pts
Blue projected score-13.8pts
Red win probability80%
Event bonus sample148alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 51%, blue 48%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 98.9
- Score range
- -28–127
- Upset likelihood
- 20%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
233.3Season APEX271.8
26.5Auto14.4
52.1Teleop-19.8
16.6Endgame-8.6
64Consistency130
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 40 | 13 |
| teleop | 91 | 74 |
| endgame | 11 | 27 |
| foul | 15 | 0 |
| total | 157 | 114 |
Result
Final score
157 – 114
Prediction correct · off by 86.1 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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