Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

280.37 – 75.49

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

337 – 42

Prediction correct · off by 45.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 405.5 ±11.6

7417Bionic Bombers

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 42.49Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

111WildStang

Season APEX 241Event APEX 153.5Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8096Cache Money

Season APEX 110.9Event APEX 84.38Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 245.8 ±16.6

4863The Chicago Style BotPups

Provisional

Season APEX 43.9Event APEX 26.52Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

11173STAR FORCE

Season APEX 126.3Event APEX 34.45Rank 35Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 91

8029Steel Bronco Robotics

Season APEX 75.6Event APEX 14.52Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7417, 111, 8096

/ 100 compat

Projected

280.4 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 7417, 111, 8096

Auto

31.7 12%

Teleop

184.6 68%

Endgame

53.6 20%

Strengths

· 111 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4863, 11173, 8029

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.5 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 4863, 11173, 8029

Auto

22.7 31%

Teleop

41.6 57%

Endgame

8.8 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.49 · Blue 0.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score280.4pts

Blue projected score75.5pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 204.9
Score range: 47–308
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 379 vs event baseline 155.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

405.5Season APEX245.8

31.7Auto22.7

184.6Teleop41.6

53.6Endgame8.8

173Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	21
teleop	191	10
endgame	90	11
foul	5	0
total	337	42

Result

Final score

337 – 42

Prediction correct · off by 45.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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