Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

65.99 – 176.99

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

83 – 110

Prediction correct · off by 42 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 200.1 ±18.8

4296Trident Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 75.4Event APEX 53.35Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

4645The Chicago Style BotDogs

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 35.65Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4702Cyberdogz

Provisional

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX -23.01Rank 33Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 210.9 ±17

4787Axiom

Season APEX 90Event APEX 125.24Rank 27Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2151PMSA Monty Pythons

Provisional

Season APEX 32.6Event APEX -8.72Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

1781Lindblom Electric Eagles

Season APEX 88.3Event APEX 60.47Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4296, 4645, 4702

/ 100 compat

Projected

66 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 4296, 4645, 4702

Auto

23.6 37%

Teleop

15.7 25%

Endgame

24.0 38%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4787, 2151, 1781

/ 100 compat

Projected

177 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4787, 2151, 1781

Auto

19.5 11%

Teleop

126.6 71%

Endgame

31.5 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.98 · Blue 2.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score66pts

Blue projected score177pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -111
Score range: 37–206
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 193 vs event baseline 158.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

200.1Season APEX210.9

23.6Auto19.5

15.7Teleop126.6

24Endgame31.5

115Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	17
teleop	32	67
endgame	32	11
foul	5	15
total	83	110

Result

Final score

83 – 110

Prediction correct · off by 42 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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