Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

36.44 – 302.56

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

89 – 278

Prediction correct · off by 38.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 206.8 ±14.6

2358Bearbotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 26.98Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8122Mechanical Mustaches

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX -16.3Rank 34Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7201Crobotics

Season APEX 46.2Event APEX 25.76Rank 30Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 422.8 ±13.2

48Team E.L.I.T.E.

Season APEX 220.6Event APEX 73.76Rank 13Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

112Plus One

Season APEX 90.2Event APEX 69.51Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5934Crowbotics

Season APEX 112Event APEX 159.29Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 82

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2358, 8122, 7201

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.4 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 2358, 8122, 7201

Auto

17.8 56%

Teleop

20.0 63%

Endgame

-6.1 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 48, 112, 5934

/ 100 compat

Projected

302.6 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 48, 112, 5934

Auto

62.0 21%

Teleop

162.4 54%

Endgame

76.8 25%

Strengths

· 5934 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.52 · Blue 2.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score36.4pts

Blue projected score302.6pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -266.1
Score range: 8–331
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 367 vs event baseline 157.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

206.8Season APEX422.8

17.8Auto62

20Teleop162.4

-6.1Endgame76.8

59Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	58
teleop	34	159
endgame	24	61
foul	5	0
total	89	278

Result

Final score

89 – 278

Prediction correct · off by 38.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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