Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

127.98 – 27.29

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

272 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 131.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 353.3 ±11.6

7417Bionic Bombers

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 12.9Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6651Golden Bots

Season APEX 51.1Event APEX -25.86Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5847Ironclad

Season APEX 248.6Event APEX 140.94Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 237.1 ±16

5822WolfByte

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX -5.4Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

9669Regina Riveters

Provisional

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX -23.29Rank 31Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8880Terra Cyborg

Season APEX 97.1Event APEX 55.98Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7417, 6651, 5847

/ 100 compat

Projected

128 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 7417, 6651, 5847

Auto

21.3 17%

Teleop

64.4 51%

Endgame

40.2 32%

Strengths

· 5847 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5822, 9669, 8880

/ 100 compat

Projected

27.3 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 5822, 9669, 8880

Auto

15.8 73%

Teleop

-0.9 0%

Endgame

6.8 31%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.15 · Blue 1.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score128pts

Blue projected score27.3pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 100.7
Score range: -1–156
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 419 vs event baseline 154.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

353.3Season APEX237.1

21.3Auto15.8

64.4Teleop-0.9

40.2Endgame6.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	10
teleop	141	88
endgame	76	49
foul	5	0
total	272	147

Result

Final score

272 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 131.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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