Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

4.98 – 164.73

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

109 – 137

Prediction correct · off by 65.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 356.9 ±13.9

3067Robovikes

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 28.19Rank 29Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11173STAR FORCE

Season APEX 126.3Event APEX 8.1Rank 35Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2704Roaring Robotics

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX -31.31Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 238.4 ±16.5

4645The Chicago Style BotDogs

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 38.84Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2151PMSA Monty Pythons

Provisional

Season APEX 32.6Event APEX 5.57Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10435IRS - Intelligent Robotic Systems

Season APEX 139.3Event APEX 120.32Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3067, 11173, 2704

/ 100 compat

Projected

5 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3067, 11173, 2704

Auto

-2.9 51%

Teleop

1.5 0%

Endgame

-4.3 75%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4645, 2151, 10435

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.7 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4645, 2151, 10435

Auto

22.5 14%

Teleop

86.8 53%

Endgame

53.3 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.82 · Blue 2.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score5pts

Blue projected score164.7pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -159.7
Score range: -22–192
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 246 vs event baseline 150.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

356.9Season APEX238.4

-2.9Auto22.5

1.5Teleop86.8

-4.3Endgame53.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	31
teleop	59	61
endgame	29	40
foul	5	5
total	109	137

Result

Final score

109 – 137

Prediction correct · off by 65.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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