Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

228.35 – 119.55

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

420 – 32

Prediction correct · off by 139.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 453.3 ±14.1

2338Gear It Forward

Season APEX 251.3Event APEX 18.94Rank 4Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4787Axiom

Season APEX 90Event APEX 103.65Rank 27Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5934Crowbotics

Season APEX 112Event APEX 105.76Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 82

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 146.2 ±18.8

9280PrepaTec - High Altitude Robotics

Season APEX 46.1Event APEX 33Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4296Trident Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 75.4Event APEX 67.82Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

1739Chicago Knights Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 24.7Event APEX 18.73Rank 32Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2338, 4787, 5934

/ 100 compat

Projected

228.4 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 2338, 4787, 5934

Auto

50.6 22%

Teleop

126.3 55%

Endgame

51.0 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9280, 4296, 1739

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.6 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9280, 4296, 1739

Auto

46.8 40%

Teleop

41.2 35%

Endgame

28.4 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.24 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score228.4pts

Blue projected score119.6pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 108.8
Score range: 94–254
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 452 vs event baseline 144.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

453.3Season APEX146.2

50.6Auto46.8

126.3Teleop41.2

51Endgame28.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	76	19
teleop	254	7
endgame	90	6
foul	0	0
total	420	32

Result

Final score

420 – 32

Prediction correct · off by 139.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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