Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

112.94 – 133.72

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

43 – 164

Prediction correct · off by 50.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 148.3 ±19.7

4702Cyberdogz

Provisional

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX 22.72Rank 33Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7201Crobotics

Season APEX 46.2Event APEX 36.16Rank 30Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

4863The Chicago Style BotPups

Provisional

Season APEX 43.9Event APEX 54.06Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 278.4 ±14.6

2290FLYT

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 38.78Rank 10Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3734StarBots

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 11.61Rank 23Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

8096Cache Money

Season APEX 110.9Event APEX 83.33Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4702, 7201, 4863

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.9 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4702, 7201, 4863

Auto

16.6 15%

Teleop

62.3 57%

Endgame

30.5 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2290, 3734, 8096

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.7 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 2290, 3734, 8096

Auto

6.8 5%

Teleop

79.3 61%

Endgame

43.0 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.37 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score112.9pts

Blue projected score133.7pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -20.8
Score range: 86–161
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 207 vs event baseline 148.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

148.3Season APEX278.4

16.6Auto6.8

62.3Teleop79.3

30.5Endgame43

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	17
teleop	15	108
endgame	6	39
foul	5	0
total	43	164

Result

Final score

43 – 164

Prediction correct · off by 50.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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