Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

156.23 – 75.99

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

207 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 39.9 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 522.9 ±10.5

8880Terra Cyborg

Season APEX 97.1Event APEX 27.54Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

48Team E.L.I.T.E.

Season APEX 220.6Event APEX 93.53Rank 13Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3061Huskie Robotics

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 35.16Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 291.8 ±14.5

4645The Chicago Style BotDogs

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 52.24Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

11173STAR FORCE

Season APEX 126.3Event APEX -16.4Rank 35Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2358Bearbotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 40.15Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8880, 48, 3061

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.2 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 8880, 48, 3061

Auto

13.7 9%

Teleop

108.3 69%

Endgame

34.4 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4645, 11173, 2358

/ 100 compat

Projected

76 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4645, 11173, 2358

Auto

4.3 6%

Teleop

40.6 56%

Endgame

27.1 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.17 · Blue 1.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score156.2pts

Blue projected score76pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 80.2
Score range: 49–183
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 312 vs event baseline 147.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

522.9Season APEX291.8

13.7Auto4.3

108.3Teleop40.6

34.4Endgame27.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	19
teleop	120	58
endgame	54	23
foul	0	5
total	207	105

Result

Final score

207 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 39.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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