Qualification · Qualification 10
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
67.68 – 97.4
41%59%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
204 – 88
Prediction missed · off by 72.9 points
Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 221.5 ±15.1
Season APEX 46.1Event APEX 1.41Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 112Event APEX 70.74Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 82
Season APEX 63.4Event APEX -4.47Rank 22Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 305.2 ±12.7
Season APEX 51.1Event APEX 6.94Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 90Event APEX 86.84Rank 27Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 3.62Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 9280, 5934, 3472
42
/ 100 compatProjected
67.7 pts
~1.5 RP (regional)
Teams: 9280, 5934, 3472
Auto
15.8 25%
Teleop
21.6 35%
Endgame
25.1 40%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 62%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 6651, 4787, 2704
51
/ 100 compatProjected
97.4 pts
~1.8 RP (regional)
Teams: 6651, 4787, 2704
Auto
18.1 19%
Teleop
61.6 63%
Endgame
17.6 18%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 62%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.76
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score67.7pts
Blue projected score97.4pts
Red win probability41%
Event bonus sample148alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 62%, blue 52%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -29.7
- Score range
- 40–125
- Upset likelihood
- 41%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
221.5Season APEX305.2
15.8Auto18.1
21.6Teleop61.6
25.1Endgame17.6
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 76 | 21 |
| teleop | 82 | 57 |
| endgame | 41 | 10 |
| foul | 5 | 0 |
| total | 204 | 88 |
Result
Final score
204 – 88
Prediction missed · off by 72.9 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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