Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

267.65 – 406.08

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

259 – 227

Prediction missed · off by 93.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 547.5 ±10.5

8029Steel Bronco Robotics

Season APEX 75.6Event APEX 40.9Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

48Team E.L.I.T.E.

Season APEX 220.6Event APEX 118.3Rank 13Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2338Gear It Forward

Season APEX 251.3Event APEX 108.45Rank 4Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 551.2 ±11

5847Ironclad

Season APEX 248.6Event APEX 211.79Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8122Mechanical Mustaches

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 12.96Rank 34Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

111WildStang

Season APEX 241Event APEX 181.33Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8029, 48, 2338

/ 100 compat

Projected

267.7 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8029, 48, 2338

Auto

53.9 20%

Teleop

147.7 56%

Endgame

62.3 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5847, 8122, 111

/ 100 compat

Projected

406.1 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 5847, 8122, 111

Auto

82.9 21%

Teleop

232.9 58%

Endgame

85.9 21%

Strengths

· 5847 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.89 · Blue 2.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score267.7pts

Blue projected score406.1pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -138.4
Score range: 235–439
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 486 vs event baseline 180.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

547.5Season APEX551.2

53.9Auto82.9

147.7Teleop232.9

62.3Endgame85.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	71
teleop	138	110
endgame	69	36
foul	0	10
total	259	227

Result

Final score

259 – 227

Prediction missed · off by 93.9 pts

Match videos

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