Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

269.44 – 430.64

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

250 – 223

Prediction missed · off by 113.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 547.5 ±10.5

8029Steel Bronco Robotics

Season APEX 75.6Event APEX 41.42Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

48Team E.L.I.T.E.

Season APEX 220.6Event APEX 118.59Rank 13Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2338Gear It Forward

Season APEX 251.3Event APEX 109.43Rank 4Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 551.2 ±11

5847Ironclad

Season APEX 248.6Event APEX 220.14Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8122Mechanical Mustaches

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 21.68Rank 34Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

111WildStang

Season APEX 241Event APEX 188.82Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8029, 48, 2338

/ 100 compat

Projected

269.4 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 8029, 48, 2338

Auto

53.8 20%

Teleop

146.2 55%

Endgame

67.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5847, 8122, 111

/ 100 compat

Projected

430.6 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 5847, 8122, 111

Auto

82.1 19%

Teleop

253.7 59%

Endgame

91.7 21%

Strengths

· 5847 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.82 · Blue 2.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score269.4pts

Blue projected score430.6pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -161.2
Score range: 237–463
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 473 vs event baseline 179.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

547.5Season APEX551.2

53.8Auto82.1

146.2Teleop253.7

67.4Endgame91.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	89
teleop	152	78
endgame	28	41
foul	15	15
total	250	223

Result

Final score

250 – 223

Prediction missed · off by 113.5 pts

Match videos

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