Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

184.02 – 281.18

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

208 – 168

Prediction missed · off by 68.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 457.1 ±10.4

9438Leopard Tech

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 13.96Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2486CocoNuts

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 88.18Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9449Yellowjackets

Season APEX 164.3Event APEX 81.88Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 453.1 ±12.8

3006Red Rock Robotics

Season APEX 276.8Event APEX 173.61Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3216MRT

Season APEX 114.7Event APEX 101.46Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

74368-Bit Miners

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 6.11Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9438, 2486, 9449

/ 100 compat

Projected

184 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9438, 2486, 9449

Auto

29.7 16%

Teleop

112.3 61%

Endgame

41.8 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3006, 3216, 7436

/ 100 compat

Projected

281.2 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3006, 3216, 7436

Auto

49.8 19%

Teleop

143.8 55%

Endgame

69.5 26%

Strengths

· 3006 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.99 · Blue 2.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score184pts

Blue projected score281.2pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -97.2
Score range: 154–311
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 376 vs event baseline 168.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

457.1Season APEX453.1

29.7Auto49.8

112.3Teleop143.8

41.8Endgame69.5

24Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	57
teleop	140	48
endgame	44	33
foul	0	30
total	208	168

Result

Final score

208 – 168

Prediction missed · off by 68.6 pts

Match videos

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