Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

484.11 – 180.39

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

299 – 191

Prediction correct · off by 97.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 661.3 ±10.2

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 223.13Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3729The Raiders

Season APEX 103.5Event APEX 31.7Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2122Team Tators

Season APEX 289.6Event APEX 229.28Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 457.1 ±10.4

9438Leopard Tech

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 12.35Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2486CocoNuts

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 87.22Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9449Yellowjackets

Season APEX 164.3Event APEX 80.82Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 359, 3729, 2122

/ 100 compat

Projected

484.1 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 359, 3729, 2122

Auto

104.4 22%

Teleop

265.0 56%

Endgame

104.3 22%

Strengths

· 2122 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9438, 2486, 9449

/ 100 compat

Projected

180.4 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9438, 2486, 9449

Auto

31.2 17%

Teleop

109.1 61%

Endgame

39.7 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.65 · Blue 0.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score484.1pts

Blue projected score180.4pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 303.7
Score range: 150–514
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 490 vs event baseline 166.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

661.3Season APEX457.1

104.4Auto31.2

265Teleop109.1

104.3Endgame39.7

0Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	119	24
teleop	174	122
endgame	1	45
foul	5	0
total	299	191

Result

Final score

299 – 191

Prediction correct · off by 97.9 pts

Match videos

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