Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

132.36 – 148.14

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

219 – 104

Prediction missed · off by 65.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 283.8 ±12.7

5515Blue Power Robotics

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 32.12Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

5461Victorian Engineered Robotic Nation or V.E.R.N.

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 53.44Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9726Notus Pirates

Season APEX 161.1Event APEX 46.8Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 298.8 ±14.1

10903The Ionizers

Season APEX 189.9Event APEX 64.1Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2130Alpha+

Season APEX 23.7Event APEX 26.81Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

6358The Buhlean Operators

Season APEX 85.2Event APEX 57.23Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5515, 5461, 9726

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.4 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 5515, 5461, 9726

Auto

14.3 11%

Teleop

73.0 58%

Endgame

38.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10903, 2130, 6358

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.1 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10903, 2130, 6358

Auto

35.0 24%

Teleop

82.3 56%

Endgame

28.7 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score132.4pts

Blue projected score148.1pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -15.8
Score range: 102–178
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 323 vs event baseline 165.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

283.8Season APEX298.8

14.3Auto35

73Teleop82.3

38.5Endgame28.7

15Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	34
teleop	124	56
endgame	67	14
foul	15	0
total	219	104

Result

Final score

219 – 104

Prediction missed · off by 65.4 pts

Match videos

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