Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

314.08 – 167.85

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

120 – 174

Prediction missed · off by 100.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 453.1 ±12.8

3006Red Rock Robotics

Season APEX 276.8Event APEX 184.04Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3216MRT

Season APEX 114.7Event APEX 111.73Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

74368-Bit Miners

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 18.31Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 233 ±14.6

4183Bit Buckets

Season APEX 87.3Event APEX 60.82Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8551RoNex

Season APEX 68.2Event APEX 43.97Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

7334Esquimalt Proton Pulverizers

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 63.06Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3006, 3216, 7436

/ 100 compat

Projected

314.1 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 3006, 3216, 7436

Auto

46.7 15%

Teleop

175.8 58%

Endgame

79.4 26%

Strengths

· 3006 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4183, 8551, 7334

/ 100 compat

Projected

167.9 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4183, 8551, 7334

Auto

28.8 18%

Teleop

87.2 54%

Endgame

46.9 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.46 · Blue 0.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score314.1pts

Blue projected score167.9pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 146.2
Score range: 138–344
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 294 vs event baseline 165.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

453.1Season APEX233

46.7Auto28.8

175.8Teleop87.2

79.4Endgame46.9

4Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	49
teleop	40	53
endgame	35	72
foul	5	0
total	120	174

Result

Final score

120 – 174

Prediction missed · off by 100.1 pts

Match videos

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