Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

159.93 – 143.32

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

247 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 46.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 457.1 ±10.4

9438Leopard Tech

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 4.65Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2486CocoNuts

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 80.49Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9449Yellowjackets

Season APEX 164.3Event APEX 74.79Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 298.8 ±14.1

10903The Ionizers

Season APEX 189.9Event APEX 62.28Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2130Alpha+

Season APEX 23.7Event APEX 24.6Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

6358The Buhlean Operators

Season APEX 85.2Event APEX 56.44Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9438, 2486, 9449

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.9 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9438, 2486, 9449

Auto

27.3 17%

Teleop

101.1 64%

Endgame

30.1 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10903, 2130, 6358

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.3 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10903, 2130, 6358

Auto

33.1 23%

Teleop

76.9 54%

Endgame

32.1 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score159.9pts

Blue projected score143.3pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 16.6
Score range: 113–190
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 396 vs event baseline 165.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

457.1Season APEX298.8

27.3Auto33.1

101.1Teleop76.9

30.1Endgame32.1

19Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	44
teleop	123	85
endgame	75	15
foul	0	5
total	247	149

Result

Final score

247 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 46.4 pts

Match videos

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