Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

476.27 – 125.74

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

511 – 148

Prediction correct · off by 28.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 661.3 ±10.2

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 221.78Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3729The Raiders

Season APEX 103.5Event APEX 28.01Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2122Team Tators

Season APEX 289.6Event APEX 226.48Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 283.8 ±12.7

5515Blue Power Robotics

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 32.18Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

5461Victorian Engineered Robotic Nation or V.E.R.N.

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 50.11Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9726Notus Pirates

Season APEX 161.1Event APEX 43.45Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 359, 3729, 2122

/ 100 compat

Projected

476.3 pts

~2.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 359, 3729, 2122

Auto

105.5 22%

Teleop

258.4 55%

Endgame

106.0 23%

Strengths

· 2122 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5515, 5461, 9726

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.7 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 5515, 5461, 9726

Auto

15.3 13%

Teleop

73.0 62%

Endgame

29.2 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.66 · Blue 0.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score476.3pts

Blue projected score125.7pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 350.5
Score range: 97–505
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 659 vs event baseline 162.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

661.3Season APEX283.8

105.5Auto15.3

258.4Teleop73

106Endgame29.2

0Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	104	13
teleop	278	58
endgame	99	77
foul	30	0
total	511	148

Result

Final score

511 – 148

Prediction correct · off by 28.5 pts

Match videos

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