Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

149.69 – 188.78

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

94 – 202

Prediction correct · off by 34.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 283.8 ±12.7

5515Blue Power Robotics

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 38Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

5461Victorian Engineered Robotic Nation or V.E.R.N.

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 58.94Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9726Notus Pirates

Season APEX 161.1Event APEX 52.75Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 457.1 ±10.4

9438Leopard Tech

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 15.69Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2486CocoNuts

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 89.94Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9449Yellowjackets

Season APEX 164.3Event APEX 83.15Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5515, 5461, 9726

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.7 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 5515, 5461, 9726

Auto

13.1 9%

Teleop

83.9 59%

Endgame

45.9 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9438, 2486, 9449

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.8 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9438, 2486, 9449

Auto

28.7 15%

Teleop

117.6 62%

Endgame

42.4 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.32 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score149.7pts

Blue projected score188.8pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -39.1
Score range: 119–220
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 296 vs event baseline 170.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

283.8Season APEX457.1

13.1Auto28.7

83.9Teleop117.6

45.9Endgame42.4

21Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	22
teleop	51	112
endgame	28	38
foul	0	30
total	94	202

Result

Final score

94 – 202

Prediction correct · off by 34.5 pts

Match videos

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