Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

453.95 – 247.18

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

457 – 309

Prediction correct · off by 32.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 661.3 ±10.2

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 213.6Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3729The Raiders

Season APEX 103.5Event APEX 21.67Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2122Team Tators

Season APEX 289.6Event APEX 218.68Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 508.4 ±10.5

8229Balikbayan Bots

Season APEX 188.9Event APEX 104.58Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8005Mega MeadowBots

Season APEX 214.9Event APEX 118.75Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1891Bullbots

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 23.85Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 359, 3729, 2122

/ 100 compat

Projected

454 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 359, 3729, 2122

Auto

106.8 24%

Teleop

250.3 56%

Endgame

87.4 20%

Strengths

· 2122 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8229, 8005, 1891

/ 100 compat

Projected

247.2 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 8229, 8005, 1891

Auto

46.8 19%

Teleop

148.3 61%

Endgame

48.2 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.56 · Blue 0.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score454pts

Blue projected score247.2pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 206.8
Score range: 217–484
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 766 vs event baseline 167.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

661.3Season APEX508.4

106.8Auto46.8

250.3Teleop148.3

87.4Endgame48.2

0Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	119	77
teleop	240	149
endgame	98	83
foul	0	0
total	457	309

Result

Final score

457 – 309

Prediction correct · off by 32.4 pts

Match videos

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