Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

171.11 – 148.39

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

130 – 158

Prediction missed · off by 25.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 233 ±14.6

4183Bit Buckets

Season APEX 87.3Event APEX 62.35Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8551RoNex

Season APEX 68.2Event APEX 44.14Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

7334Esquimalt Proton Pulverizers

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 64.62Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 283.8 ±12.7

5515Blue Power Robotics

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 37.7Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

5461Victorian Engineered Robotic Nation or V.E.R.N.

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 58.14Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9726Notus Pirates

Season APEX 161.1Event APEX 52.55Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4183, 8551, 7334

/ 100 compat

Projected

171.1 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4183, 8551, 7334

Auto

34.8 21%

Teleop

81.5 49%

Endgame

50.8 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5515, 5461, 9726

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.4 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 5515, 5461, 9726

Auto

13.6 10%

Teleop

83.1 59%

Endgame

44.6 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.79 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score171.1pts

Blue projected score148.4pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 22.7
Score range: 118–201
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 288 vs event baseline 168.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

233Season APEX283.8

34.8Auto13.6

81.5Teleop83.1

50.8Endgame44.6

35Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	11
teleop	62	88
endgame	23	54
foul	20	5
total	130	158

Result

Final score

130 – 158

Prediction missed · off by 25.4 pts

Match videos

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