Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

144.66 – 108.59

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

167 – 158

Prediction correct · off by 35.9 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 477 ±11.7

2594Naskcorpions

Season APEX 68.5Event APEX 12Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2486CocoNuts

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 90.37Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9449Yellowjackets

Season APEX 164.3Event APEX 42.29Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 316.1 ±14.1

3729The Raiders

Season APEX 103.5Event APEX 27.71Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2130Alpha+

Season APEX 23.7Event APEX 66.17Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

8229Balikbayan Bots

Season APEX 188.9Event APEX 14.71Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2594, 2486, 9449

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.7 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2594, 2486, 9449

Auto

31.9 23%

Teleop

78.0 56%

Endgame

30.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3729, 2130, 8229

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.6 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3729, 2130, 8229

Auto

12.2 11%

Teleop

99.2 87%

Endgame

2.1 2%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.86 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score144.7pts

Blue projected score108.6pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 36.1
Score range: 82–172
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 325 vs event baseline 151.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

477Season APEX316.1

31.9Auto12.2

78Teleop99.2

30.3Endgame2.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	13
teleop	101	86
endgame	23	59
foul	5	0
total	167	158

Result

Final score

167 – 158

Prediction correct · off by 35.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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