Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

349.9 – 112.41

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

498 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 87.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 565.8 ±11.2

4183Bit Buckets

Season APEX 87.3Event APEX 50.76Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8229Balikbayan Bots

Season APEX 188.9Event APEX 84.55Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2122Team Tators

Season APEX 289.6Event APEX 214.59Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 227.2 ±15.8

7497MARAHO

Season APEX 42.4Event APEX 36.5Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

9726Notus Pirates

Season APEX 161.1Event APEX 46.58Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2130Alpha+

Season APEX 23.7Event APEX 29.33Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4183, 8229, 2122

/ 100 compat

Projected

349.9 pts

~2.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 4183, 8229, 2122

Auto

57.9 17%

Teleop

212.8 62%

Endgame

74.8 22%

Strengths

· 2122 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7497, 9726, 2130

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.4 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 7497, 9726, 2130

Auto

21.4 20%

Teleop

63.5 60%

Endgame

21.5 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.66 · Blue 0.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score349.9pts

Blue projected score112.4pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 237.5
Score range: 83–379
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 583 vs event baseline 161.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

565.8Season APEX227.2

57.9Auto21.4

212.8Teleop63.5

74.8Endgame21.5

53Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	99	27
teleop	288	23
endgame	106	15
foul	5	20
total	498	85

Result

Final score

498 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 87.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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