Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

30.36 – 336.13

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

78 – 226

Prediction correct · off by 78.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 180.1 ±14.5

1566AMMOKNIGHTS

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 5.31Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 94

11025Garage Gang

Season APEX 55Event APEX 10.2Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

1828BoxerBots

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 14.85Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 551.9 ±11.6

3006Red Rock Robotics

Season APEX 276.8Event APEX 194.52Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10903The Ionizers

Season APEX 189.9Event APEX 73.56Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6358The Buhlean Operators

Season APEX 85.2Event APEX 68.05Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1566, 11025, 1828

/ 100 compat

Projected

30.4 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 1566, 11025, 1828

Auto

13.6 53%

Teleop

-2.5 0%

Endgame

14.7 57%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3006, 10903, 6358

/ 100 compat

Projected

336.1 pts

~2.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3006, 10903, 6358

Auto

47.9 15%

Teleop

194.4 59%

Endgame

85.1 26%

Strengths

· 3006 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.53 · Blue 2.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score30.4pts

Blue projected score336.1pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 74%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -305.8
Score range: 1–365
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 304 vs event baseline 161.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

180.1Season APEX551.9

13.6Auto47.9

-2.5Teleop194.4

14.7Endgame85.1

50Consistency8

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	70
teleop	25	105
endgame	22	51
foul	0	0
total	78	226

Result

Final score

78 – 226

Prediction correct · off by 78.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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