Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

135.48 – 57.94

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

165 – 19

Prediction correct · off by 34.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 210.2 ±13.9

3216MRT

Season APEX 114.7Event APEX 110.63Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8885Socratic Schematics

Season APEX 41.2Event APEX -5.84Rank 35Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 94

5515Blue Power Robotics

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 30.69Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 214.8 ±12.2

1891Bullbots

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 24.66Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

74368-Bit Miners

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 22.98Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9438Leopard Tech

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 10.3Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3216, 8885, 5515

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.5 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 3216, 8885, 5515

Auto

23.3 18%

Teleop

63.2 48%

Endgame

45.5 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1891, 7436, 9438

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.9 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 1891, 7436, 9438

Auto

12.3 25%

Teleop

22.0 44%

Endgame

15.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.04 · Blue 1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score135.5pts

Blue projected score57.9pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 77.5
Score range: 29–164
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 184 vs event baseline 162.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

210.2Season APEX214.8

23.3Auto12.3

63.2Teleop22

45.5Endgame15.4

6Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	13
teleop	90	4
endgame	31	2
foul	5	0
total	165	19

Result

Final score

165 – 19

Prediction correct · off by 34.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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