Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

145.45 – 291.91

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

165 – 441

Prediction correct · off by 84.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 306.9 ±14.5

5871Chickadees

Season APEX 32.9Event APEX 7.45Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

8005Mega MeadowBots

Season APEX 214.9Event APEX 110.28Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4585Husky Robotics

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 27.72Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 514.5 ±10.8

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 208.89Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9449Yellowjackets

Season APEX 164.3Event APEX 65.09Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1569Haywire Robotics

Season APEX 82Event APEX 17.93Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5871, 8005, 4585

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.5 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 5871, 8005, 4585

Auto

40.7 28%

Teleop

85.9 60%

Endgame

17.5 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 359, 9449, 1569

/ 100 compat

Projected

291.9 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 359, 9449, 1569

Auto

52.6 18%

Teleop

165.3 58%

Endgame

68.7 24%

Strengths

· 359 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.91 · Blue 2.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score145.5pts

Blue projected score291.9pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -146.5
Score range: 116–321
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 606 vs event baseline 160.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

306.9Season APEX514.5

40.7Auto52.6

85.9Teleop165.3

17.5Endgame68.7

0Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	89
teleop	81	267
endgame	26	85
foul	15	0
total	165	441

Result

Final score

165 – 441

Prediction correct · off by 84.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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