Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

165.28 – 99.52

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

203 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 38.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 410.3 ±12.8

4183Bit Buckets

Season APEX 87.3Event APEX 47.09Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2486CocoNuts

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 77.8Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4175Coded Summit

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 40.39Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 235.9 ±16.9

8550The Ram Bots

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 18.63Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

8551RoNex

Season APEX 68.2Event APEX 50.58Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

3729The Raiders

Season APEX 103.5Event APEX 30.31Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4183, 2486, 4175

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.3 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4183, 2486, 4175

Auto

23.5 15%

Teleop

104.3 64%

Endgame

34.0 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8550, 8551, 3729

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.5 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 8550, 8551, 3729

Auto

19.1 20%

Teleop

46.1 49%

Endgame

29.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.06 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score165.3pts

Blue projected score99.5pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 65.8
Score range: 71–194
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 264 vs event baseline 160.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

410.3Season APEX235.9

23.5Auto19.1

104.3Teleop46.1

34Endgame29.2

38Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	28
teleop	117	25
endgame	62	3
foul	0	5
total	203	61

Result

Final score

203 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 38.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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