Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

320.09 – 123.39

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

281 – 26

Prediction correct · off by 68.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 407.7 ±11.4

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 210.31Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5515Blue Power Robotics

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 36Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

6358The Buhlean Operators

Season APEX 85.2Event APEX 73.78Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 250.5 ±14.6

7497MARAHO

Season APEX 42.4Event APEX 48.38Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

3729The Raiders

Season APEX 103.5Event APEX 40.16Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1891Bullbots

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 34.85Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 359, 5515, 6358

/ 100 compat

Projected

320.1 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 359, 5515, 6358

Auto

58.3 18%

Teleop

174.3 55%

Endgame

86.6 27%

Strengths

· 359 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7497, 3729, 1891

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.4 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 7497, 3729, 1891

Auto

30.5 27%

Teleop

47.5 42%

Endgame

36.3 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.58 · Blue 0.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score320.1pts

Blue projected score123.4pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 196.7
Score range: 94–349
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 307 vs event baseline 161.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

407.7Season APEX250.5

58.3Auto30.5

174.3Teleop47.5

86.6Endgame36.3

17Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	21
teleop	135	5
endgame	72	0
foul	10	0
total	281	26

Result

Final score

281 – 26

Prediction correct · off by 68.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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