Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

179.74 – 330.33

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

188 – 331

Prediction correct · off by 4.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 242.2 ±13.3

4585Husky Robotics

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 26.46Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 94

5461Victorian Engineered Robotic Nation or V.E.R.N.

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 56.31Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3216MRT

Season APEX 114.7Event APEX 96.97Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 554.8 ±12.3

2486CocoNuts

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 88.45Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 209.53Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7497MARAHO

Season APEX 42.4Event APEX 32.35Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4585, 5461, 3216

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.7 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4585, 5461, 3216

Auto

34.8 20%

Teleop

96.5 56%

Endgame

39.8 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2486, 359, 7497

/ 100 compat

Projected

330.3 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2486, 359, 7497

Auto

74.1 23%

Teleop

177.2 55%

Endgame

70.1 22%

Strengths

· 359 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.93 · Blue 2.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score179.7pts

Blue projected score330.3pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -150.6
Score range: 149–361
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 519 vs event baseline 174.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

242.2Season APEX554.8

34.8Auto74.1

96.5Teleop177.2

39.8Endgame70.1

0Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	84
teleop	98	173
endgame	59	74
foul	5	0
total	188	331

Result

Final score

188 – 331

Prediction correct · off by 4.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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