Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

179.48 – 147.95

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

76 – 200

Prediction missed · off by 77.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 179 ±15.8

7497MARAHO

Season APEX 42.4Event APEX 59.48Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

8551RoNex

Season APEX 68.2Event APEX 61.64Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

5461Victorian Engineered Robotic Nation or V.E.R.N.

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 58.36Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 342.3 ±11.2

8005Mega MeadowBots

Season APEX 214.9Event APEX 106.76Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9438Leopard Tech

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 6Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4175Coded Summit

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 35.19Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7497, 8551, 5461

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.5 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 7497, 8551, 5461

Auto

26.9 15%

Teleop

107.0 61%

Endgame

40.1 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8005, 9438, 4175

/ 100 compat

Projected

148 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 8005, 9438, 4175

Auto

27.2 18%

Teleop

108.0 71%

Endgame

16.3 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.74 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score179.5pts

Blue projected score148pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 31.5
Score range: 119–208
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 276 vs event baseline 161.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

179Season APEX342.3

26.9Auto27.2

107Teleop108

40.1Endgame16.3

1Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	39
teleop	42	93
endgame	21	53
foul	0	15
total	76	200

Result

Final score

76 – 200

Prediction missed · off by 77.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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