Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

93.12 – 193.78

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

156 – 348

Prediction correct · off by 108.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 312.9 ±13.9

74368-Bit Miners

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 14.94Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1828BoxerBots

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 10.75Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

10903The Ionizers

Season APEX 189.9Event APEX 67.43Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 377.9 ±12

8885Socratic Schematics

Season APEX 41.2Event APEX -14.71Rank 35Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2594Naskcorpions

Season APEX 68.5Event APEX 14.4Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 194.09Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7436, 1828, 10903

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.1 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 7436, 1828, 10903

Auto

15.4 19%

Teleop

33.6 42%

Endgame

31.6 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8885, 2594, 359

/ 100 compat

Projected

193.8 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 8885, 2594, 359

Auto

45.1 24%

Teleop

87.5 46%

Endgame

59.1 31%

Strengths

· 359 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.07 · Blue 2.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score93.1pts

Blue projected score193.8pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -100.7
Score range: 64–223
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 504 vs event baseline 159.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

312.9Season APEX377.9

15.4Auto45.1

33.6Teleop87.5

31.6Endgame59.1

67Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	57
teleop	69	196
endgame	47	95
foul	5	0
total	156	348

Result

Final score

156 – 348

Prediction correct · off by 108.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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