Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

237.06 – 122.52

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

203 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 29.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 391.7 ±14.9

1569Haywire Robotics

Season APEX 82Event APEX 22.54Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

5871Chickadees

Season APEX 32.9Event APEX 17.43Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

3006Red Rock Robotics

Season APEX 276.8Event APEX 197.09Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 269.4 ±12.7

7334Esquimalt Proton Pulverizers

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 41.53Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1891Bullbots

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 32.51Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4183Bit Buckets

Season APEX 87.3Event APEX 48.48Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1569, 5871, 3006

/ 100 compat

Projected

237.1 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 1569, 5871, 3006

Auto

29.3 13%

Teleop

152.1 66%

Endgame

49.5 21%

Strengths

· 3006 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7334, 1891, 4183

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.5 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 7334, 1891, 4183

Auto

29.7 27%

Teleop

52.0 46%

Endgame

30.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.27 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score237.1pts

Blue projected score122.5pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 114.5
Score range: 94–266
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 350 vs event baseline 159.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

391.7Season APEX269.4

29.3Auto29.7

152.1Teleop52

49.5Endgame30.3

5Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	45
teleop	105	56
endgame	35	46
foul	0	0
total	203	147

Result

Final score

203 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 29.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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