Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

141.62 – 258.98

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

183 – 344

Prediction correct · off by 63.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 287 ±12.2

5461Victorian Engineered Robotic Nation or V.E.R.N.

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 58.7Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9449Yellowjackets

Season APEX 164.3Event APEX 53.75Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5515Blue Power Robotics

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 29.17Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 505.7 ±11.7

2122Team Tators

Season APEX 289.6Event APEX 211.55Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11025Garage Gang

Season APEX 55Event APEX 3.16Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

9726Notus Pirates

Season APEX 161.1Event APEX 44.27Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5461, 9449, 5515

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.6 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 5461, 9449, 5515

Auto

17.5 12%

Teleop

94.6 65%

Endgame

33.2 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2122, 11025, 9726

/ 100 compat

Projected

259 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 2122, 11025, 9726

Auto

55.7 23%

Teleop

140.7 58%

Endgame

45.3 19%

Strengths

· 2122 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.95 · Blue 2.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score141.6pts

Blue projected score259pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -117.4
Score range: 114–287
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 527 vs event baseline 157.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

287Season APEX505.7

17.5Auto55.7

94.6Teleop140.7

33.2Endgame45.3

10Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	69
teleop	100	206
endgame	52	69
foul	5	0
total	183	344

Result

Final score

183 – 344

Prediction correct · off by 63.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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