Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

62.12 – 173.49

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

78 – 187

Prediction correct · off by 14.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 125.1 ±16.9

2594Naskcorpions

Season APEX 68.5Event APEX 15.21Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5871Chickadees

Season APEX 32.9Event APEX 17.7Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

2130Alpha+

Season APEX 23.7Event APEX 29.21Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 206.4 ±14.6

4175Coded Summit

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 38.78Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7497MARAHO

Season APEX 42.4Event APEX 59.29Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

6358The Buhlean Operators

Season APEX 85.2Event APEX 75.42Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2594, 5871, 2130

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.1 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 2594, 5871, 2130

Auto

20.2 31%

Teleop

39.7 60%

Endgame

6.2 9%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4175, 7497, 6358

/ 100 compat

Projected

173.5 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4175, 7497, 6358

Auto

30.2 17%

Teleop

103.7 60%

Endgame

39.7 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.96 · Blue 2.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score62.1pts

Blue projected score173.5pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -111.4
Score range: 34–201
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 265 vs event baseline 157.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

125.1Season APEX206.4

20.2Auto30.2

39.7Teleop103.7

6.2Endgame39.7

1Consistency3

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	26
teleop	33	117
endgame	22	44
foul	0	0
total	78	187

Result

Final score

78 – 187

Prediction correct · off by 14.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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