Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

424.25 – 292.46

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

412 – 205

Prediction correct · off by 49.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 622 ±12.7

2122Team Tators

Season APEX 289.6Event APEX 213.16Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 197.92Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8550The Ram Bots

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 13.17Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 562.2 ±11.7

8885Socratic Schematics

Season APEX 41.2Event APEX -3.61Rank 35Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3006Red Rock Robotics

Season APEX 276.8Event APEX 207.1Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2486CocoNuts

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 88.97Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2122, 359, 8550

/ 100 compat

Projected

424.3 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 2122, 359, 8550

Auto

94.0 22%

Teleop

248.1 58%

Endgame

83.0 20%

Strengths

· 2122 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8885, 3006, 2486

/ 100 compat

Projected

292.5 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8885, 3006, 2486

Auto

53.6 19%

Teleop

156.3 56%

Endgame

70.7 25%

Strengths

· 3006 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.45 · Blue 0.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score424.3pts

Blue projected score292.5pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 131.8
Score range: 264–452
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 617 vs event baseline 154.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

622Season APEX562.2

94Auto53.6

248.1Teleop156.3

83Endgame70.7

0Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	102	12
teleop	187	149
endgame	98	39
foul	25	5
total	412	205

Result

Final score

412 – 205

Prediction correct · off by 49.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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