Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

70.93 – 93.23

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

156 – 83

Prediction missed · off by 47.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 427.8 ±12.2

2726Red Pebble Rebels

Season APEX 158.9Event APEX 2.72Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9449Yellowjackets

Season APEX 164.3Event APEX 43.4Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1891Bullbots

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 24.81Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 210.9 ±13.3

5461Victorian Engineered Robotic Nation or V.E.R.N.

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 59.54Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1566AMMOKNIGHTS

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX -6.76Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4175Coded Summit

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 40.45Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2726, 9449, 1891

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.9 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2726, 9449, 1891

Auto

16.8 26%

Teleop

32.7 51%

Endgame

14.9 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5461, 1566, 4175

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.2 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 5461, 1566, 4175

Auto

16.6 17%

Teleop

67.7 68%

Endgame

15.2 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score70.9pts

Blue projected score93.2pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -22.3
Score range: 43–121
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 239 vs event baseline 154.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

427.8Season APEX210.9

16.8Auto16.6

32.7Teleop67.7

14.9Endgame15.2

44Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	17
teleop	114	56
endgame	26	10
foul	0	0
total	156	83

Result

Final score

156 – 83

Prediction missed · off by 47.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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