Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

77.27 – 232.41

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

42 – 192

Prediction correct · off by 37.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 228.1 ±13.3

11025Garage Gang

Season APEX 55Event APEX 16.79Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

1891Bullbots

Season APEX 104.6Event APEX 26.89Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2594Naskcorpions

Season APEX 68.5Event APEX 33.59Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 401.9 ±11.2

2122Team Tators

Season APEX 289.6Event APEX 213.5Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9438Leopard Tech

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 14.09Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1566AMMOKNIGHTS

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 4.82Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11025, 1891, 2594

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.3 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 11025, 1891, 2594

Auto

23.0 31%

Teleop

28.6 39%

Endgame

22.6 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2122, 9438, 1566

/ 100 compat

Projected

232.4 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 2122, 9438, 1566

Auto

57.8 25%

Teleop

130.2 57%

Endgame

42.4 18%

Strengths

· 2122 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.76 · Blue 2.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score77.3pts

Blue projected score232.4pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -155.1
Score range: 46–263
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 234 vs event baseline 174.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

228.1Season APEX401.9

23Auto57.8

28.6Teleop130.2

22.6Endgame42.4

0Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	59
teleop	6	128
endgame	11	5
foul	15	0
total	42	192

Result

Final score

42 – 192

Prediction correct · off by 37.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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