Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

155.9 – 46.71

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

221 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 37.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 400.4 ±12.4

8005Mega MeadowBots

Season APEX 214.9Event APEX 97.58Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3729The Raiders

Season APEX 103.5Event APEX 37.96Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1569Haywire Robotics

Season APEX 82Event APEX 20.36Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 131.6 ±16.9

11025Garage Gang

Season APEX 55Event APEX 5.52Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2130Alpha+

Season APEX 23.7Event APEX 29.87Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

8756Magic Valley Logic Control

Season APEX 52.9Event APEX 11.32Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8005, 3729, 1569

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.9 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 8005, 3729, 1569

Auto

33.4 22%

Teleop

89.8 58%

Endgame

31.8 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11025, 2130, 8756

/ 100 compat

Projected

46.7 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 11025, 2130, 8756

Auto

4.5 12%

Teleop

29.6 76%

Endgame

4.8 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.17 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score155.9pts

Blue projected score46.7pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 109.2
Score range: 19–184
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 278 vs event baseline 154.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

400.4Season APEX131.6

33.4Auto4.5

89.8Teleop29.6

31.8Endgame4.8

6Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	15
teleop	126	14
endgame	45	28
foul	15	0
total	221	57

Result

Final score

221 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 37.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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