Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

260.77 – 206.15

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

265 – 121

Prediction correct · off by 44.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 462.2 ±13.6

9726Notus Pirates

Season APEX 161.1Event APEX 42.5Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

359Hawaiian Kids

Season APEX 268.2Event APEX 196.25Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5871Chickadees

Season APEX 32.9Event APEX 22.02Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 372.1 ±12.8

2594Naskcorpions

Season APEX 68.5Event APEX 31.11Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3216MRT

Season APEX 114.7Event APEX 101Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8229Balikbayan Bots

Season APEX 188.9Event APEX 74.04Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9726, 359, 5871

/ 100 compat

Projected

260.8 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9726, 359, 5871

Auto

43.5 17%

Teleop

148.7 58%

Endgame

63.4 25%

Strengths

· 359 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2594, 3216, 8229

/ 100 compat

Projected

206.2 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2594, 3216, 8229

Auto

32.4 16%

Teleop

113.0 55%

Endgame

58.4 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.95 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score260.8pts

Blue projected score206.2pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 54.6
Score range: 178–289
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 386 vs event baseline 152.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

462.2Season APEX372.1

43.5Auto32.4

148.7Teleop113

63.4Endgame58.4

0Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	48
teleop	142	73
endgame	50	0
foul	0	0
total	265	121

Result

Final score

265 – 121

Prediction correct · off by 44.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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