Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

95.9 – 90.35

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

136 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 31.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 261.7 ±14.1

9449Yellowjackets

Season APEX 164.3Event APEX 40.43Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7497MARAHO

Season APEX 42.4Event APEX 54.66Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

11025Garage Gang

Season APEX 55Event APEX 0.81Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 252.4 ±13.3

3729The Raiders

Season APEX 103.5Event APEX 32.76Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1566AMMOKNIGHTS

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX -5.31Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 94

6358The Buhlean Operators

Season APEX 85.2Event APEX 62.9Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9449, 7497, 11025

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.9 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9449, 7497, 11025

Auto

27.3 31%

Teleop

43.1 50%

Endgame

16.5 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3729, 1566, 6358

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.4 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 3729, 1566, 6358

Auto

28.7 30%

Teleop

45.5 48%

Endgame

21.2 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score95.9pts

Blue projected score90.4pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 5.6
Score range: 62–124
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 250 vs event baseline 153.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

261.7Season APEX252.4

27.3Auto28.7

43.1Teleop45.5

16.5Endgame21.2

2Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	29
teleop	76	37
endgame	30	43
foul	5	5
total	136	114

Result

Final score

136 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 31.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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