Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

38.85 – 225.07

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

31 – 233

Prediction correct · off by 7.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 261.8 ±12.8

5515Blue Power Robotics

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 25.47Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2726Red Pebble Rebels

Season APEX 158.9Event APEX 6.26Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9438Leopard Tech

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 7.12Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 536.6 ±10.5

2486CocoNuts

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 93.66Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8005Mega MeadowBots

Season APEX 214.9Event APEX 98.35Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7334Esquimalt Proton Pulverizers

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 33.06Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5515, 2726, 9438

/ 100 compat

Projected

38.8 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 5515, 2726, 9438

Auto

7.2 16%

Teleop

20.9 48%

Endgame

15.9 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2486, 8005, 7334

/ 100 compat

Projected

225.1 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 2486, 8005, 7334

Auto

54.2 25%

Teleop

139.0 64%

Endgame

24.9 11%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.7 · Blue 2.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score38.8pts

Blue projected score225.1pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -186.2
Score range: 11–253
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 264 vs event baseline 154.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

261.8Season APEX536.6

7.2Auto54.2

20.9Teleop139

15.9Endgame24.9

63Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	91
teleop	13	95
endgame	4	47
foul	0	0
total	31	233

Result

Final score

31 – 233

Prediction correct · off by 7.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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