Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

46.66 – 97.35

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

90 – 120

Prediction correct · off by 33 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 169 ±15.7

8551RoNex

Season APEX 68.2Event APEX 55.07Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

7895Trobots

Season APEX 39.4Event APEX -8.77Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 94

1828BoxerBots

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 0.36Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 153.7 ±14.6

2130Alpha+

Season APEX 23.7Event APEX 27.73Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 79

5461Victorian Engineered Robotic Nation or V.E.R.N.

Season APEX 68.4Event APEX 54.87Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

74368-Bit Miners

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 14.75Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8551, 7895, 1828

/ 100 compat

Projected

46.7 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 8551, 7895, 1828

Auto

15.7 39%

Teleop

2.9 7%

Endgame

21.4 53%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2130, 5461, 7436

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.4 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 2130, 5461, 7436

Auto

18.1 19%

Teleop

55.0 57%

Endgame

23.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.22 · Blue 1.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score46.7pts

Blue projected score97.4pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -50.7
Score range: 19–125
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 210 vs event baseline 155.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

169Season APEX153.7

15.7Auto18.1

2.9Teleop55

21.4Endgame23.7

43Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	16
teleop	40	95
endgame	38	4
foul	5	5
total	90	120

Result

Final score

90 – 120

Prediction correct · off by 33 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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