Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

19.04 – 13.45

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

52 – 36

Prediction correct · off by 27.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 136.5 ±14.9

5871Chickadees

Season APEX 32.9Event APEX 18.69Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9438Leopard Tech

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 3.82Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11025Garage Gang

Season APEX 55Event APEX -3.47Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 286.8 ±15.8

2726Red Pebble Rebels

Season APEX 158.9Event APEX 4.7Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1566AMMOKNIGHTS

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX -7Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 94

8550The Ram Bots

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 15.75Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5871, 9438, 11025

/ 100 compat

Projected

19 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 5871, 9438, 11025

Auto

7.0 52%

Teleop

18.4 100%

Endgame

-12.0 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2726, 1566, 8550

/ 100 compat

Projected

13.5 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 2726, 1566, 8550

Auto

16.1 79%

Teleop

13.3 65%

Endgame

-8.9 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.5 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score19pts

Blue projected score13.5pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 5.6
Score range: -15–47
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 88 vs event baseline 156.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

136.5Season APEX286.8

7Auto16.1

18.4Teleop13.3

-12Endgame-8.9

15Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	13
teleop	20	16
endgame	14	7
foul	0	0
total	52	36

Result

Final score

52 – 36

Prediction correct · off by 27.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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